The Great Split: Inside the 2026 Collector Car Market

Back in January, we asked the question everyone wanted answered: is the market back?

Three months in, we have the answer.

And it’s not what the headline auction results were suggesting.

The Global Picture: The Hangover Continues (But It’s Easing)

Let’s rip the plaster off first. Put simply, the broader market is still sliding.

Globally, collector car prices are down 6% in the first three months of 2026. Classic cars are faring slightly better, but they are still down 4% overall.

63% of cars fell in value in Q1.

That sounds bad - until you realise it was 71% last year.

The bleeding hasn't stopped, but it is certainly slowing down.

When we break this down geographically, the picture evolves:

• The US Market: Currently the weakest core market we track. It is acting as a heavy anchor on global averages.

• The EU Market: Flying high. The European market is bucking the global trend with impressive double-digit growth. And no - this isn’t a currency illusion. Even accounting for FX, the growth is real.

• The UK Market: A tiny glimmer of hope. For the first time since the Covid boom, UK prices actually ticked up by 1% - but they still sit 45% below their peak.

Winners and Losers: Where is the Money Moving?

If you look closely at the data, clear battle lines are being drawn between what buyers desperately want and what they are actively avoiding.

What’s Doing Well:

• The Top End: The money is still flowing - but the buyer base is changing. Top-end auction houses are reporting that nearly 50% of registered bidders so far this year are completely new to the market. And it’s these new entrants - not just the traditional collectors - who are driving the surge at the very top end. The 90s and 00s poster cars - Ferraris like the 360 CS, 288 GTO, F50, and Enzo - are practically minting money, fuelled by a new wave of wealth entering the space. The generational shift everyone has been talking about is clearly here - but not in the way many expected. The next generation isn’t starting at the bottom - it’s skipping straight to the top.

• European Marques: Led by Renault, Daimler, and Ferrari, continental cars are currently the strongest force in the market.

• The Roaring 20s and the 70s: Decade-wise, cars from the 1920s and the 1970s are the only two eras showing positive price gains so far this year.

What’s Struggling:

• British Metal: It’s a tough time to be selling British heritage. Rolls-Royce, Bentley, and Lotus are the weakest performers marques right now.

• The 1940s: Cars from the 40s took an absolute beating at the start of the year, with prices plummeting 30% overall.

The Split Market: The Great Standoff

In January, we noted the emergence of a "split market." In Q1, that split has evolved into a clear standoff.

And increasingly, we can see what’s driving it.

With a surge of new bidders focusing almost exclusively on top-tier cars, liquidity is being pulled upward - leaving the middle of the market increasingly stagnant.

We are seeing a massive divergence in how owners behave depending on the value of their cars.

• We’ve seen a 31% increase in the volume of cars trading for over £250,000.

• Simultaneously, we’ve seen a 16% increase in cars trading for under £10,000.

But everything in between is where the real tension lies. 

Volume across the vast middle of the market has dropped. This isn’t because the cars are unsellable - it’s because sellers are refusing to meet the market.

If you own a £5,000 modern classic that's dropping in value, you are highly likely to just cut your losses and move on. If you own a £60,000 enthusiast car that is currently trading at £45,000, you are likely holding onto it, waiting and hoping the market turns.

But if you own a multi-million-pound Ferrari? You are riding a very lucrative wave. We are seeing monumental prices for top-tier modern classics in 2026, and owners are catching on.

They are actively choosing to transact right now to capitalise on this top-end strength.

For the middle market, holding tight may prove to be a smart move for now. On one hand you have the indicators that the market is bottoming out and starting to improve. On the other hand, if that trend reverses, when does a smart hold turn into a firesale?

The Vital Signs: Supply and Sell-Through

If you’ve been following our analysis, you know our golden rule right now: Supply needs to keep constraining if prices are going to stabilise.

So, how are we doing?

We’ve seen a 2% increase in the number of vehicles being offered at auction in Q1. While it is an increase, the rate of that increase is slowing down dramatically. This is great news and a key factor needed to reinvigorate prices. However, we are still seeing well over twice as many auction listings as we did pre-Covid.

Quick side note, we’ve been working on building a much broader view on the market beyond auctions - more on that in our next update. Watch this space.

For now, the best news from the auction world comes from the sell-through rate, which has stabilised at 78% globally (matching this time last year). After multiple years of painful declines, a stable sell-through rate shows that the delta between buyer and seller expectations is finally merging. (Though it's worth noting local variances: the US sell-through rate ticked up 1 percentage point, while the UK fell by 4).

Summary: What Does the Future Hold?

So, is 2026 a boom year? No.

But it is shaping up to be the year the market finally bottoms out.

The rate of price declines is slowing. The avalanche of auction supply is losing momentum. Buyer and seller expectations are aligning. The top tier is thriving, and the EU market is showing us that genuine asset growth is still entirely possible.

Despite all this talk of percentages and price drops, our core philosophy remains unchanged. You should buy what you love, but buy with a drop of data.

Ultimately, the most important thing is that you love what’s sitting in your garage and you actually go out and drive it. Now that Q1 is behind us, spring is officially here. Let's just hope the April showers hold off long enough for us to get the cars out.

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