Is The Collector Car Market Finally Back?

The question that keeps getting asked is: 'Is the market back? Is 2026 the year of the boom?' 

And looking at the auction results from the US and Paris in January, most would say yes. 

But I think those results are dangerous distractions.

While the billionaires are fighting over 'Blue Chips,' the real market is telling a very different story.

Here’s our take on whether 2026 so far is shaping up to be a boom year for the collector car market. Read it in long form below or view the YouTube video instead.

We're gonna approach this by considering four questions.

First - the context. What's happened to the car market in recent years?

Put simply prices have been on the decline, big time. 

In 2025, collector car prices fell 10% vs 2024.

71% of vehicles fell in value last year.

And that is a continuation of a trend we’ve seen of declining prices since the Covid boom.

For instance, collector car prices in the US are 23% down from the peak.

And in the UK, it’s even worse, that figure stands at 43%.

Now, depending on your perspective, declining prices aren’t all bad, but on the whole it’s tricky to argue they’re a positive thing for the future of the industry.

Second - why even ask this question now?

Well, January is the busiest month in the collector car auction calendar with huge sales over in the US, followed by a number of high-ticket auctions in Paris surrounding Retromobile.

And at those auctions, we’ve seen world record after world record broken.

To give you a flavour:

Ferrari F12 TDF

The world record coming into 2026 was c. $1.7m.

Mecum sold an example from The Bachman Collection with 68 miles for $3.19m.

The Ferrari 360 Challenge Stradale

The world record coming into 2026 was just over $600,000.

Mecum smashed this twice in minutes. 

First, a 327 mile example, the last one produced for the US sold for $1.15m.

Moments later, a 375 mile example, in a beautiful spec sold for $1.87m.

The world record coming into 2026 for a 360 Challenge Stradale was just over $600,000. It's now triple that.

Ferrari Enzo

The world record coming into 2026 for a Ferrari Enzo was $6m.

We’ve seen 4 Enzos come to auction in 2026, all 4 sold above that previous world record price.

And partly those prices can be explained because many of those (and note: not all) were super low mileage, most were one or two owners from new, most in punchy (if ghastly) specs, most were last of the line cars.

But the question then follows...

Where prices have boomed at the top end, is the broader market following suit?

Well that’s question number three.

The short answer is no.

When we look at prices in January 2026 and compare them to Jan 2025, many would’ve expected prices to be far higher, the reality is that globally prices are down 3.4% still.

It’s only one month of data so should be taken with a pinch of salt but a few trends are potentially emerging within.

The first is a constraining of supply.

I can’t emphasise this enough, too many cars coming to market has been a huge factor driving prices downwards in recent years.

Indeed, we’re seeing well over twice as many cars come to auction as there were pre-covid.

2026, thankfully, so far has seen fewer cars come to market than we saw last year, this is the first time in years this has happened.

Supply needs to keep constraining if prices are going to stabilise.

The second is a split market.

We’re seeing two clear markets emerge.

We’re seeing confidence at the top end, with the number of cars selling at over £250,000 up 65% vs Jan 2025.

We’re seeing a far weaker market below that point. Again, driven by many factors, but partly down to those cars in need of restoration seriously struggling to find a home. Restoration labour rates have skyrocketed, it’s truer than ever that buying a ropey car and restoring it costs far far more than buying one already done. If you’re selling anything “in need of a little TLC” you’re almost certainly gonna pay the price (if you pardon the pun).

The third trend we’re seeing is sell-through rate bounce back.

Sell-through rate is simply the number of cars that are offered at auction that actually sell.

This has been declining since 2021 and bottomed out in 2024, but we’ve seen it bounce back in 2025 and 2026 with two consecutive years of rises.

What does that tell us? 

It tells us that buyer and seller's expectations are aligning. After sellers hoping for Covid prices despite the market coming off the boil and prices falling well over double digits in percentage terms, sellers have realised to sell they need to be pragmatic, we’ve also seen buyers conscious of the declines in the market and start to step forward again realising that some cars are trading at significant discounts to what they were 5 years ago.

In summary, January 2026 has seen prices decline overall but we’re seeing supply tighten (good news), a split market is present with the top end faring much better and we’re seeing buyer and seller expectations align more closely.

So, that brings us to our final question.

What does the future hold?

Now, as I said earlier, this is only one month's data so take it all with a pinch of salt.

In our 2025 review, we said there is room for “cautious positivity” on what happens to prices in 2026. The most important factor is supply constraining.

We’ve seen the initial glimmers of that in January, that trend needs to continue.

We also know that the rate of price declines is slowing, a sign that we’re bottoming out and prices could start to stabilise and rebound.

Those two reasons give me confidence that 2026 is the start of the market turning. 

Despite all this talk of prices, we believe firmly that you should buy what you love, but buy with a drop of data. Ultimately, the most important thing is that you love what’s sat in your garage and you go out and drive it.

The only issue is half the UK is currently underwater, so you might need a boat instead of a BMW.

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