The Market Is 11% Down, But...

Comparing prices in the first 4 months of 2025 to the first 4 months of 2024 shows prices are 11% down overall and 23% down from the peak in 2022. 

However, don’t take this at face value. We’re not seeing a collapse in value. Instead, the market is shifting in composition.

As the saying goes, the devil is in the details. 

Perhaps some markets are doing better than others? Err…

UK: down 17% overall.

US: down 8% overall.

EU: down 5% overall.

Classics are faring slightly better though but prices remain in negative territory - down 6.2% vs -11% for the market overall comparing 2025 to 2024.

But while regional performance shows a downward trend, values by production decade reveal a more nuanced story.

When we take a look at price movements by decade of production, two key elements emerge.

Firstly, the continued weakness of modern vehicle values.

We saw all through 2024 the weakest performing decades tended to be the 2010s and 2000s - that trend continues in the first 4 months of 2025. 

Prices for vehicles from the 2000s were down 13% vs the same period in 2024 and down a huge 24% for the vehicles from the 2010s.

Secondly, the revival of pre-war cars.

We’ve been touting this for about 18 months now that the decline in pre-war cars is greatly over-egged. The data from 2025 confirms this.

Pre-war prices haven’t fallen but have actually risen 6% compared to the same period in 2024.

Taking that a step further, remarkably, vehicles from the 1930s were the best performing decade of all in the first 4 months of the year. Prices were up 13% on the same period in 2024.

Once again, downtalk the pre-war market at your peril.

So, what’s driving the market to ‘fall’?

That’s a good question to ask. 

The question to ask before that is is the market actually falling (as seen by the 11% price declines) or rather, are we just seeing prices decline as cheaper models are coming to market?

When we look at the top 200 most popular models we track in our database it tells an interesting story. 

Of those 200, 46% have seen prices rise in 2025 vs the same period in 2024.

And 54% have seen prices fall over that period.

When you look at each model line-by-line, the average price decline is a mere 1%.

In other words, we’ve got about a 50/50 split of cars. Roughly 50% are rising in value. Roughly 50% are falling in value. But the value change isn’t huge, it’s -1% on average.

That tells us that whilst overall prices are down at a headline level, it may be that we’re just seeing cheaper vehicles come to market, rather than the intrinsic value of a vehicle falling drastically between 2024 and 2025, it’s just less desirable cars are coming to market.

We can test that further.

Comparing the first 4 months of 2025 to the same period in 2024 has seen a 23% increase in the number of sub-$10,000 cars coming to market.

At the same time, we’ve seen a 9% decrease in the number of cars over $100,000 coming to market.

This reinforces the point above. It’s not actually that values are tanking.

Speaking to dealers and auction houses, it’s clear that there is an assumption with buyers and sellers that prices are softening. 

For buyers, that means they’re willing to sit tight and not be in a rush to pounce in case prices are cheaper tomorrow

For sellers, it shows that those with more valuable vehicles, therefore more to lose in absolute terms, are sitting tight, hoping the market bounces back. 

Whilst those with lower value vehicles, and therefore less to lose in absolute terms, are happy to wipe the slate clean and shift the vehicle even if it means taking a £1,000 loss.

This is vital.

It explains why prices are down 11% compared to the first 4 months of 2024.

It’s not that prices have tanked.

The reality is they’re steady, down by 1% if you look at it on a model-by-model basis.

The truth is that the market is only down by 11% because we’re seeing lower value vehicles come to market due to the perception prices are continuing to fall.

Prices most certainly did fall in 2024, which has driven the perception prices might still be falling now.

The data from the first 4 months of the year shows that fear is, so far, unfounded.

Perception may be driving the narrative, but the numbers suggest the market is finding its feet.

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