I remember speaking to people after the auctions earlier this year and people would always ask the same thing.
"Ooo seemed like lots of cars went unsold at the auction, prices seemed down as well. This is the crash we've been expecting, right?"
Wrong.
The data tell us otherwise.
As we close out Q3 and Q4 begins, we've analysed how the year so far stacks up to the previous 5 years (analysing the same period).
This article will walk you through:
Our Analysis From The Year So Far
The Top 10 Most Expensive Cars To Sell This Year
5 Cars You Really Should've Bought A Few Years Ago
5 Cars That Have Tanked In Price In 2023
Let's get into it.
Our Analysis From The Year So Far
Prices Are Up 12%
As we said in opening, the classic car market has got a fair bit of verbal bashing in 2023. Lots of talk of a downfall in prices and grim outlook in the months ahead.
The data tells us that such an assertion is perhaps unwarranted.
We've analysed every sale in our database across the first 9 months of the year, and done the same for every year back to, and including, 2019. Sales have only been included where the vehicle was produced before the year 2000.
Looking at the median price each year, 2023 has been the best of the bunch. The median price globally stood at £25,889.
Not only is that the strongest year we've seen in this analysis but it's also 12% above the prices we saw last year.
An impressive achievement considering 2022 saw the second highest prices over the period (£23,062).
So, with prices up 12% from a year ago, and 21% since 5 years ago, all is rosy?
Well, this rise is potentially explained by multiple factors.
For example, it could just be that we've seen more expensive cars come to auction overall which makes it look like prices have risen rather than the value of classics rising as a whole.
Let's explore that.
One way to test that is looking at price changes on an individual model basis, by doing so we're more likely to be comparing apples with apples.
How Have The Most Popular Models Performed
When we look across the 100 most popular models in our database, the data tell us the following...
70 of the 100 most popular models have seen prices rise when comparing the median price in the first 9 months of 2023 to the same period in 2022.
Across all 100 markets the median price increase (at a model level) is 6% between 2023 and 2022.
Doing the same analysis but comparing the first 9 months of 2023 to the first 9 months of 2019 saw the median price increase in an astounding 95 out of 100 markets.
And not just by a small amount, the median increase was 45%.
Let's pause there to make sure that makes sense as it's important.
What this confirms is that the price rises we've seen this year aren't just more expensive cars coming to auction.
The truth is the market as a whole has seen price appreciation over recent years, we know that because when comparing apples with apples at a model level we're seeing similar (give or take) price gains to what we're seeing at an overall level.
Cool, so we know the market is up overall. Let's dive in a little deeper.
How Do Prices Vary By County?
We gather data now from 47 countries around the world, so we're well placed to show how the market is performing across the main geographies.
Big divergences are occurring.
The graph below covers data on the median sale price in 2023 vs 2022 (light blue bar) and vs 2019 (darker blue bar).
First thing to say is all countries have seen positive price growth this year.
The US has seen prices rise 16.3%.
The UK has risen 8.9%.
The EU has seen prices rise 9.5%.
However, the US is the only geography in this graph to have seen positive growth over a 5-year period. The UK and EU have seen falls of 19.6% and 15.4% respectively.
You can see the picture becoming even more nuanced.
Right, some more nuance is looking at prices and how different decades are performing.
How Have Prices Changed By Decade?
Of course, we have a graph to visualise this...
This is our favourite chart. We've even given it a name 'The Wave'. Well, because it's shaped like a wave that rises from below the surface, crests and then falls away again.
This is showing is how the median price of cars produced from the 1920s through to the 1990s has changed in percentage terms over the last 5 years.
The 1970s remain, as they have in almost every iteration of this graph, the main growth area across any decade with prices up 52% in 5 years.
Equally, the 60s and 50s slot into 2nd and 3rd place as we have seen previously with this graph.
Once again the 1920s and 1930s are laggards with the 20s down 3.8% and the 30s up only 6.3% over the past 5 years.
If you remember nothing else when it comes to classic car price movements, let it be this graph.
The Wave graph is all about shifts in demand, how demand from new generations shows appreciation both mentally and financially for a newer breed of vehicle.
In simple language, we'll see the crest of that wave moving into the 80s and then 90s in the coming years.
But what else can we infer from classic car demand from the first 9 months of the year?
Has Sell-Through Rate Fallen Off A Cliff?
No, not exactly. But it's not pretty.
The above graph tracks sell-through rate over the past 5 years.
Sell-through rate is simply the percentage of vehicles that go to auction (and met their reserve where applicable) and sold.
It has its flaws, over-enthusiastic estimates from auction houses or pessimistic estimates or no reserve sales (which are increasingly common) can skew the figure either way not to mention multiple variables like auction location, conditions etc.
Couple of key points to make here:
Although the sell-through rate has fallen 9 percentage points from its high in 2021, its still above the sell-through rate seen in 2020 (albeit Covid rose its head)
Applying a trend line through the year-on-year volatility (see the light blue line), it shows sell-through rate trending down at less than 1 percentage point per annum - hardly falling off a cliff
There is an increasing number of lots at auction being sold at no reserve - that flatters these numbers - as each of those lots is guaranteed to sell therefore guaranteed to make it into this data. When looking back at recent auction results and analysing the sell-through rate when only looking at cars with a reserve, it's closer to c. 58%.
What else do we have in the locker to analyse demand?
Well, we have our friends at Google.
The behemoth publishes data on whether a particular topic is trending up or down in search popularity.
When you look at the volume of searches globally for the topic of 'Classic Car' you get the following chart.
To explain this graph this is a representation of how many people are searching terms relating to 'Classic Car' relative to the peak in July 2021.
The straight line across it is a trend line.
At first, glance it makes for pretty shoddy reading. Seemingly, classic car demand (as inferred through Google searches) has dropped off a cliff as of 2022.
The reality is that's not the case. Google actually made an "improvement to their data collection processes" at the beginning of 2022 which is why the data changes hugely.
If you were to apply a trend line through the data from 2019 to the end of 2021, it'd be near flat.
And if you were to apply a trend line through the data from 2022 (the start of Google's new method to today), it'd be up very slightly.
In other words, demand based upon Google searches is actually in a strong position and trending up very slightly in recent years.
Takeaways
There's lots of detail in the above but if I were to leave you with three things it'd be these:
Forget the naysayers. The market is up 12% overall, as are prices in all of the core markets with the US leading the way up 16%
Memorise 'The Wave'. It remains as important as ever. Don't forget it
Demand is stable. Despite many headwinds with the sell-through rate only down 1 percentage point year-on-year
Right, that wraps up our headline analysis of the year so far.
Let's jump into the specific sales of note.
The Top 10 Most Expensive Cars To Sell This Year
Whether you're at the top or bottom end of the collector car market, there are always fascinating cars coming to the market. It's also fascinating how much dominance certain organisations have when it comes to the top end of the market.
Of the top 10 most expensive cars to sell publicly this year, Ferrari dominate 8 out of the top 10 slots.
When it comes to who is auctioning these cars, RM Sotheby's dominate with 6 out of the top 10 lots being sold by them, but not the top two most expensive cars to sell this year.
So without further ado, here are the top 10 most expensive cars to sell publicly in 2023:
10 - 1955 Ferrari 121 LM Spider by Scaglietti
Only four 121 LM's survive, of which this is one. And it's one of the Ferrari Works car from the 1955 24 Hours of Le Mans and 1955 Mille Miglia, although unfortunately it DNF'd at both events.
When the car did finish the race, it performed exceedingly well, of its 5 races in period (as a privateer car) it was never outside the top two. It finished 1st on three occasions and 2nd on the remaining two.
RM Sotheby's sold it at their Le Mans sale in June for €5,742,500 (£5,077,117). Interestingly, this same chassis sold in 2017 by RM for $5,720,000 (£4,441,891).
9 - 1959 Ferrari 410 Superamerica Coupe Series III
This 410 Superamerica had an awards list as long at its arm with wins at the 2021 Cavallino Classic, class-win at the 2020 Amelia Island Concours d’Elegance, and best of show-winner at the 2023 Cavallino Modena and the 2023 Concours d’Elegance Suisse. It was the fourth of 12 Series III examples built and sold towards the top end of its $5,750,000 - $6,750,000 estimate at $6,605,000 (£5,299,251).
8 - 1961 Ferrari 250 GT SWB Berlinetta
This is the 62nd of 165 total examples built and one of the final examples clothed in the 1960 body style. It's Classiche certified and briefly appeared in the classic Disney film 'The Love Bug'. It's also registered in Sweden - a pretty rare thing for a car like this.
7 - 1962 Ferrari 250 GT SWB Berlinetta
165 SWB's were built between 1960 and 1963 and this car, chassis 3507 GT, has never been offered for public sale before. In the first 18 months of ownership the initial owner put a superb 15,000 km on the car. That didn't damage its value too much when it sold with Gooding & Co for $9,465,000 (£7,593,855).
6 - 2022 Bugatti Chiron Profilee
A 'regular' Bugatti Chiron will set you back about £2.5m nowadays. This is no standard Chiron, and that's why it sold for €9,792,500 (£8,657,843).
The is the first and only Chiron Profilee ever produced.
It was born out of Bugatti's customer feedback for a car that was slightly "less radical" than the Chiron Pur Sport. The design of the car is noticeably different to other Chiron's, particularly so at the rear.
It's also the second most expensive Bugatti to ever sell at auction.
5 - 1957 Jaguar XKSS
This XKSS was only the second XKSS to come to auction in recent history. The previous car failed to sell but reached a high bid of $11,900,000 in 2017. RM Sotheby's placed an estimate on the car of $12,000,000 - $14,000,000 and the car placed slap bang in the middle, selling (including premium) for $13,205,000 (£10,594,491). The result makes it the second most expensive Jaguar to sell in history.
4 - 1972 Ferrari 312 PB
The last time a 312 PB came to market was 2005, at the time the car sold for £918,929. RM Sotheby's sold this 312 PB for £10,647,136 (€12,042,500) at their Villa Erba sale. That's a 1,058% price increase.
The 312 PB that sold here was the winner of the 1972 Buenos Aires 1,000 Kilometres and the 1972 Nürburgring 1,000 Kilometres. It finished second at the 1972 12 Hours of Sebring, and 3rd-place finish at the 1972 Monza 1,000 Kilometres. Indeed, it was the last Ferrari Works sports prototype to compete and win the World Sportscar Championship. Quite the roll call.
3 - 1964 Ferrari 250 LM
Chassis 5901 was the 10th LM produced out of the 32 car production run. And it is 1 of only 2 to not have experienced the wounds of war on the racetrack.
Artcurial tried to sell the car in February when it reached £17.8m before being announced as not sold. That was £6.5m (before commission is added) over the previous world record price.
2 - 1962 Ferrari 250 GT SWB California Spider
This SWB Cali Spider is in the more desirable covered headlight form, of which only 37 were produced. It is Classiche certified and was built for the 1962 New York International Auto Show. This is the sole example delivered new in Azzurro Metallizzato.
1 - 1967 Ferrari 412P Berlinetta
The headline lot of the year (so far) may have missed its estimate by c. $10,000,000 but despite that it tops the billing after a single bid secured this 412P and brought it to its French owner for the princely sum of $30,255,000 (£24,273,861) - making it the most expensive car sold in 2023. It's also comes in at number 5 on the all-time most expensive cars publicly sold.
Notes: the order presented is based on currency conversion to GBP on the day of sale.
5 Cars You Really Should've Bought A Few Years Ago
It's not uncommon in the collector car world to see the same chassis come to auction multiple times, this guide will run you through the cars that have sold so far this year that have delivered the biggest return compared to when they last sold.
Here are 5 cars had you bought a few years ago you'd be sitting prettier now.
Note: cars are selected based on either price rise in % of £ terms. Any gains stated are exclusive of sellers fees.
1972 Ferrari Dino 246 GTS (Chassis: 08512)
This was one of the last Dino's built and in Chairs and Flares form in unrestored, original condition it smashed through its estimate of $600,000 - $700,000 to sell (inc. commission) for $967,500 (£785,199) in March 2023.
It was sold previously by Gooding & Co back in August 2018 for $528,000 (£401,959).
That's a 83% (in USD) or 89% (in GBP) price rise over 4 and a half years.
1963 Chevrolet Corvette Split-Window (Chassis: 30837S107269)
This C2 Corvette was sold by Barrett-Jackson in the US for $126,500 (£105,141) in July 2022.
11 months later in July 2023 it sold with Bring a Trailer and had doubled its price. The car sold for $270,000 (£216,623) including commission.
That's a $143,000 price rise in 11 months. Quite an impressive 113% return in USD and 106% return in GBP.
1969 Volkswagen Bus (Chassis: 229138758)
The classic VW camper. I remember my parents looking to buy one of these c. 2010 but they were starting to rise in price so they became out of reach. Anyway, story time over.
Bring a Trailer listed this car in March 2020 where it reached a high bid of $18,500. Had it sold and including commission that would have taken the price to $19,425 (£15,717).
That's a 153% price rise in under 4 years - a compound growth rate of 26.4%.
1966 Ford F100 Pickup (Chassis: F11YK862191)
The 1966 F100 was offered by Bring a Trailer in August 2020, it reached a high bid of $21,500 (£17,192). There would have been a 5% buyers premium on top had it sold - that takes the price to £18,052.
In July 2023, Mecum offered the same car but this time it sold for $71,500 (£57,365). That's a whopping 216% (in USD) or 218% (in GBP) above what it reached less than 3 years earlier.
2006 Lamborghini Murcielago (Chassis: ZHWBU16M16LA01785)
Bring a Trailer were behind both of these sales, yet the price delta was rather large.
They first sold this car in April 2021 including commission for $255,000 (£184,196).
They then sold the car for a second time in August 2023, a year and a half later. That $255,000 sale price had now catapulted to $469,000 (£376,282) including commission.
Comparing those two prices, it had increased by $214,000 or 84% (in USD) and 104% (in GBP).
So there we have it, 5 cars you could have bought a few years ago and delivered a very healthy return on. What about the flip side of that...
5 Cars That Have Tanked In Price
People often only talk about the collector cars that have surged in value, but the elephant in the room is that the flip side of that surge in value is that it's common place for cars to fall in value.
So, we've done some digging and found 5 instances where we've seen the same chassis come to auction multiple times and where the price of that vehicle has fallen. Let's go.
Note: cars are selected based on either price falls in % of £ terms. Any losses stated are exclusive of sellers fees and import duties where applicable.
1941 Cadillac Series 62 (Chassis: 8354526)
This is a huge price drop for an identical car. This is a 1941 Series 62 Cadillac, it was sold by Barrett-Jackson in July 2022 for $385,000 (£319,995) and then it was sold by them again in Janaury 2023 but for a comparatively measly $231,000 (£192,088).
That's a $154,000 loss in 6 months, or to put it in percentage terms 40%...
2015 Land Rover Defender 90 XS 'Khan' (Chassis: SALLDWBP7GA478723)
The online auction platform, Collecting Cars, sold this Defender, customised by Khan, initially in November 2022 where they achieved a winning bid of £50,000.
It then was listed on the platform in August 2023, just under a year later. In that period, it did. a little over 1,000 miles. Despite the marginal mileage difference, it only reached a winning bid of £33,000.
That's a 34% fall in 12 months. Putting it in other terms, for every mile that person did, it cost them £14.89 in depreciation.
1998 Subaru Impreza STI 22B (Chassis: GC8-070918)
Collecting Cars sold this iconic 22B twice in 18 months.
In the first instance, the car sold for A$362,500 (£201,670) in January 2022. At the time it had 71,003km on the clock.
Wind forward 18 months to June 2023 and the odometer now stood at 71,100km. Remarkably only 93km driven in 18 months. It turned out those 93kms may well have been the most expensive of the individual's life as when the car sold it sold for A$197,000 (£109,648).
That's a price fall of 46% in 18 months.
The depreciation per km trumps the previous car and each km cost the individual a remarkable £989.48... I'm not sure I've ever seen a higher figure than that.
1972 Ford Mustang (Chassis: 2F01F186167)
This is a prime example of the uncomfortable truth that many people don't want to acknowledge: what you spend on a car does it not correspond to an equivalent rise in value.
Here, the owner bought this '72 Mustang in April 2022 from Anglia Car Auctions for £15,228.
After acquiring the car the owner got out the cheque book and spent monies on new floors, carpets and an interior renovation. LED lights were fitted all over and a DAB radio was added. Less than 150 miles were driven in the car before it came back to auction in August 2023.
This time around it didn't sell for £15,228 but rather £9,396. That's a 38% price fall, despite the money sunk into it.
No doubt the LED lights dwindled the interested audience by a sizeable chunk...
1966 Sunbeam Tiger Custom Convertible (Chassis: 382001019)
And finally a sale from America. This is a near identical sale 12 months apart, yet the prices were 44% different.
The Sunbeam Tiger was sold by Barrett-Jackson in the US at their Scottsdale auction in 2022 for $148,500 (£110,173).
A year later, it goes back to the very same auction in Scottsdale in 2023 with seemingly no material differences aside from the title being in transit at the time of auction and sold for $74,800 (£62,200).
Exclusive of seller's fees that's a $73,700 loss...
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